Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.289185 0.338952 0.393188 0.456488 0.528133 0.606498 0.698484
2025-04-27 0.206915 0.268070 0.340234 0.430953 0.541170 0.669919 0.830806
2025-05-04 0.154256 0.220527 0.304977 0.418818 0.566391 0.749194 0.990456
2025-05-11 0.114833 0.181739 0.273915 0.407043 0.590730 0.831184 1.164922
2025-05-18 0.079681 0.141043 0.233013 0.375823 0.585871 0.876450 1.300194
2025-05-25 0.053655 0.107284 0.195215 0.342384 0.573243 0.910481 1.426338
2025-06-01 0.038461 0.086903 0.173643 0.329560 0.589205 0.987718 1.623853
2025-06-08 0.027169 0.069929 0.153841 0.315956 0.602307 1.063307 1.829599
2025-06-15 0.020840 0.060704 0.145870 0.321462 0.648135 1.196209 2.139197
2025-06-22 0.013970 0.047330 0.126173 0.301408 0.647071 1.254126 2.338654
2025-06-29 0.009605 0.037989 0.112155 0.289373 0.658738 1.335383 2.586360
2025-07-06 0.006432 0.030104 0.098851 0.275725 0.665190 1.408770 2.829753
2025-07-13 0.004615 0.025505 0.092608 0.277492 0.705353 1.552870 3.220298
2025-07-20 0.003144 0.020941 0.084716 0.273562 0.733562 1.679372 3.595208
2025-07-27 0.002223 0.017822 0.079872 0.276312 0.777578 1.843184 4.057996
2025-08-03 0.001535 0.015032 0.074850 0.277426 0.818637 2.007122 4.539398
2025-08-10 0.000904 0.011498 0.065208 0.262485 0.818859 2.087575 4.868949
2025-08-17 0.000489 0.008475 0.055490 0.243908 0.806305 2.139538 5.148401
2025-08-24 0.000296 0.006822 0.050590 0.239376 0.829833 2.274392 5.611317
2025-08-31 0.000169 0.005404 0.045714 0.233230 0.847970 2.399745 6.067406
2025-09-07 0.000114 0.004773 0.044684 0.241207 0.908275 2.631059 6.771028
2025-09-14 0.000055 0.003566 0.038952 0.228480 0.905110 2.710787 7.153537
2025-09-21 0.000027 0.002768 0.034992 0.221439 0.917953 2.831462 7.638096